Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis January 28th, 2020

• Buyers confidently tested the critical range $9050-9350.

• Due to insufficient volumes, the probability of correction with the first target $8800 is increasing.

• Consolidation under the range $9050-9350 indicates that buyers are preparing for another attack.

Today, trading in Bitcoin market was marked by an update of the local high and a confident test of the critical range $9050-9350. Bitcoin price growth has been quite rapid over the last 3 days. And finally, buyers have found resistance, which can start a correction and counter-attack of sellers. With low volumes, buyers started an attack on the most important price zone which separates buyers from the global change of the six-month falling trend.

If you analyze the situation about volumes on the hourly timeframe, it seems that the range $9050-9350 is unimportant after all:

Even locally, volumes look average and there are no signs of a fight. If buyers do not show much aggression and increase of volumes tomorrow, sellers inevitably will start a counter-attack with the first target $8600.

At the moment, Bitcoin price has stopped in consolidation. This should remain as long as buyers keep their positions and do not allow a sharp change of the trend. We can perfectly see it on a 4-hour timeframe:

Buyers’ marginal positions continue to increase and the fact that a critical price zone was tested means that they do not force buyers to reduce their marginal positions:

Sellers also do not miss, and although are passive, systematically increase their marginal positions:

A new wave of growth has tested Fibonacci level 0.382, even breaking it for a while:

As we can see in the chart on the wave analysis, the critical mark is just above the upper limit of the yellow range at $9644. The main scenario, which we wrote about in the previous analysis, worked out and with the continuation of trading in Bitcoin market with such volumes, the probability of correction with targets $8800 and $8600 is quite real:

An alternative scenario is the growth continuation of Bitcoin price without correction and a breakthrough of $9644. In this case, the price growth will continue to $10,500.

Continuation of consolidation near the price range $9050-9350 is not at all in favor of buyers. Tomorrow, we will try to figure out whether the alignment of forces in Bitcoin market has changed.

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