Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis May 1st, 2020

• Yesterday trading day was closed with a false breakdown below $8800.

• Reduced trading volumes increase the probability of correction to $7700-8000.

• The signal of global trend change will be a confident fixation above $9400.

Yesterday’s Bitcoin trading day ended the month with a test of $9440 and the closing of the daily candle at $8631. Closing Bitcoin price below the opening price, sellers remind about their existence. Thus, moving in the range of 10%, sellers managed to close yesterday’s daily candle with a false breakdown of the red growth channel.

Both the attack of buyers and the protection of sellers were on increased volumes yesterday, which indicates the achievement of an important range. This range will determine the further direction of the price movement. We see that at the horizontal volumes yesterday the main liquidity was accumulated in the range $8700-8850. Since the daily candle closed below this liquidity, today buyers will be returning their initiative.If the growth pattern of buyers changes to more passive and we do not see pressure accompanied by volumes – there will be nothing left for sellers to start the test of $7750-8000.

Local horizontal volumes on Bitcoin market for the two days yesterday coincide with the historical ones, which confirm the high liquidity of the range $8700-8850:

Therefore, even if buyers will pressure, consolidation in this Bitcoin price range is ensured.

Today, trading volumes have fallen significantly. And so far we do not see decisive actions from buyers to win the range $8700-8850. As we see on the 4-hour timeframe, buyers are scared to buy now, seeing sellers aggression above. Sellers, in turn, are not sure that the potential of buyers is completed:

If we analyze the marginal positions of market participants, then yesterday both buyers and sellers sharply reduced their positions:

As we can see, the decrease of marginal positions of Bitcoin market participants started after the breakthrough of $8800. Buyers recorded their profits, most sellers their losses. Therefore, even if buyers manage to fix above $8850, we must understand that we are entering the sales zone. Correction in the range $7700-8000 is the optimal solution to check buyers for durability.

The monthly candle closed above the opening of the previous candle, which could indicate the beginning of a new strong growth trend:

However, on the monthly timeframe we see consolidation with the upper limit of $9100-9400. And as long as Bitcoin price is below it, the local reversal down and the continuation of the price movement in consolidation are more likely. Let’s see tomorrow whather buyers will have successes in reconquering the range $7700-7850 and whether sellers will show their strength.

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