Bitcoin Price and Technical Market Analysis April 14th, 2020

• Bitcoin price is in the local range $6770-6900.

• The probability of Bitcoin price fall continuation with targets $6470 and $6770 is higher.

• Fixing above $7000, buyers will regain their power in Bitcoin market.

The dynamics of trading on Bitcoin market over the past few days has significantly stopped. After breaking the lower trend line, Bitcoin price the most time spends in the range $6770-6900. Over the course of four days, we have seen strong false breakdowns of this range both up and down. After the weakening of buyers’ trend, sellers try to start their trend. At this time buyers keep the main range with the help of limit orders and believe in the continuation of the trend.

On 12 April, when buyers made a false breakdown on the daily timeframe, sellers immediately started a counterattack, testing $6570. Faced with limit orders, sellers retreated. However, after that the counter-attack of buyers, which continues to this day, looks quite uncertain:

In addition to low volumes, pay attention how sluggish buyers are growing. This movement is more reminiscent of the correction and confirms our opinion that the balance of power in Bitcoin market is changing. Therefore, we believe in this situation, buyers are defending themselves, because fixing below Bitcoin price $6600, sellers can break the second trend line. In this case, the next target will be $5770.

The critical point for sellers is $6950-7000. If buyers are able to fix above this range then we will have a repeated test of $7300-7400.

Marginal positions of market participants confirm our opinion on misunderstanding of the market situation:

As you can see, both buyers and sellers want to close their margins, but buyers are panicking and doing it more actively.

According to the wave analysis on Bitcoin market, our main scenario remains:

We expect the test of global Fibonacci level $6470, which borders with the lower trend line of global growth. However, if wave (Y) is already complete, the price stop will be at $5770.

The global picture on the weekly timeframe also points on the price lowering and the growth correction from 13 March:

Let’s see how successful the week will be for sellers and whether buyers can regain their dominance in the market. See you tomorrow in a daily Bitcoin price analysis.

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