Bitcoin price does not look so good today, with the bears successfully bringing it down just below USD 8,000 to a low of USD 7,988 in Central European afternoon trading (CoinDesk).
#Bitcoin 📈
▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░ 41%
price: $8078.985
— Alert Shark (@Alert_Shark) November 19, 2019
It was a momentary low of course, but the fact that price is now less than USD 8,100 several hours after, and North American bulls do not seem to be showing much interest in taking it back up again, does sound like November ahead will be a month of further pullback or, at best, a month of consolidation.
BitcoinNews.com technical analysis points out already that there is almost no resistance downwards from the USD 8,500 range, so sellers have not exactly been meeting resistance on the way down. Is this a sign of exhaustion from bulls or simply that traders are not interested until Bitcoin price returns to the pre-October boom levels closer to USD 7,400?
Altcoins are probably trying to find a stop on this slippery slope, following Bitcoin price down today, and with no real support in sight. EOS is one of the biggest losers of the day, shedding over 7% of its price to settle near USD 3.09 (CoinMarketCap). Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV are showing typically harder losses when their Bitcoin father falls. Monero and NEO are showing off the strongest resistance so far, each barely losing 1% of their value in the last 24 hours.
Most crypto traders online are probably feeling the pressure, with sentiment generally showing bearish thoughts throughout. One influencer to go against the grain, however, is Willy Woo, who is famous for using statistics to put up his own technical analysis. He doesn’t disagree that it’s bearish now, but only for the short term.
NEVER gone into a halvening in BEARISH price action, miners already capitulating adding sell volume. Historically we front run with a BULLISH setup, miner capitulating only after halvening when revenues are slashed. This is a unique setup. Quite bearish leading up to the event. pic.twitter.com/20748Zv8aQ
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) November 18, 2019
Woo cautions against believing that the upcoming Bitcoin halving rate will have similar impacts on Bitcoin price as it has had in the past. The last two halving events — the halving of Bitcoin rewards given with every new block found by miners — in 2012 and 2016 had arrived after months of bullish trading. He reflects:
“I expect way more volatility. Short term bearish is all I’m saying. And don’t expect price will repeat past halvenings.”
The statistician points out that with this halving event, we are looking at a price halving as well from around USD 14,000 to perhaps USD 7,500. He says miners are being forced to sell to finance operations and the low prices are killing them:
“Well this time around, we have gone $14k->$7.5k and that’s killing off weak miners who are dumping and dying… This adds to the already bearish action, so no happy front running 6-months out due to sell pressure. You can’t draw repeat fractals, the fundamentals are different.”
Of course, the current market action has not brought any concerns to those newly converted to Bitcoin from traditional markets. Nik Bhatia, a seasoned bonds trader, in fact is one example of how Bitcoin’s constant development and recognition is convincing traditional finance people to invest in Bitcoin.
Bhatia published a blog post today saying that the implementation of second-layer Lightning Network in the Bitcoin network has made it an asset with unrivaled features, as it is now not only a store of value, but a scalable and fast medium of exchange.
The adjunct professor of finance and economics at USC Marshall School of Business has been heavily involved in Bitcoin, and spent a lot of time researching Bitcoin payment technologies at OpenNode.
The difference between Bitcoin and traditional markets now is a huge gulf, according to him, and he compares the situation just three years ago in 2016:
“Bitcoin had less than $20 billion in total value. I, a relatively small player in the bond market, was turning over $20 billion in Treasuries in just a few months.”
He then explains how he discovered the SegWit update, allowing for Lightning Network, and describes his first “thrilling” experience of Bitcoin’s settlement process:
“It was clear to me that Bitcoin was digital gold, and instead of taking weeks on ships across oceans to settle, it takes about an hour. Incredibly powerful, empowering, and in fact revolutionary.”
His only gripe was that it wasn’t instant, and hence not a global currency. This all changed with Lightning, in which it “changed Bitcoin forever with instant settlement”.
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