The last day of the week did not shed light on the local situation with Bitcoin, which emerged after the test of $10,490. After 3-days attempt by buyers to fix themselves over $9,100-9,300, sellers easily returned the price back to the price zone. On a daily timeframe, we can see the volumes with which buyers trying to break consolidation:
As you can see, each subsequent candle was formed on a smaller volume. It looks like a car going by inertia, since gasoline was already running out. Therefore, such an attack is not difficult to repel and start one’s game, which is what sellers are trying to do now.
If you try to find some pattern on a smaller hourly timeframe, then consolidation which lasts for a week, has now entered the triangle phase and is constantly narrowing:
Therefore, there are only three days left to trade in this range.
Globally, the weekly candle is closed at low volumes without clear signals about the direction of the price movement. So next week, we have to monitor carefully whether this week was a buyers stop to check sellers for resistance. Or maybe, buyers have fulfilled their primary target and are ready further to take the initiative to sellers and continue their movement in the blue falling channel.
If we analyze the mood of Bitcoin buyers, we did not see a clear definition:
As you can see, the marginal positions of buyers went beyond the trend line and are below the purple range. Buyers can not cope with this range for the fourth time. This week’s candle does not give 100% understanding that buyers abandon all hope for growth. But, the two previous facts indicate the poor mood of buyers and the possible sharp decrease in their positions.
The mood of sellers is also not at the highest positive level. Although being at historical lows there is a high probability of a reversal and the beginning of the increase of the marginal positions:
According to wave analysis, we support the main scenario of the continuation of Bitcoin price fall to $8,500. The critical point is in the price mark at $7,950:
As we can see, since buyers have not been able to reverse the trend of sellers, so we believe the price will continue to follow the trend. Whether buyers will allow forming the wave (Y) up to the mark $6,300, we will see in the fight for price $7,950.
The main scenario for next week is set. Tomorrow we will analyze whether buyers will keep it, fixing above the mark $9,300 and take by assault $9,800. Have a good start of the new working week!
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