Bitcoin price has taken a huge recovery today, despite earlier signs yesterday that there would be no joy in sight before the weekend.
Just an hour ago, for no apparent reason, Bitcoin made a huge jump from USD 7,726 to register a high of USD 8,710 on 5:15 pm UTC (CoinDesk). This represent more than 17% increase over the past 24 hours.
Seeking Alpha’s crypto commentator Avi Gilburt believes that Bitcoin continues to follow a script just as it has for the past few years, and that script dictates that we are nearing a major bottom. He explains how this script has played out so far:
“As we outlined to our subscribers, $13,425 would have been an ideal top to Bitcoin, based upon our Fibonacci Pinball calculations. However, due to the strength of Bitcoin’s rally, it slightly exceeded our target and struck $13,900 before correcting 30%.”
Gilburt also notes a turning point in market sentiment, with the frequency of bearish news and social media content increasing. He does say though that Elliott Wave shows that sentiment actually “needs to be very bearish” in retracement waves before it can rally strongly on a third wave. This is to ensure there is “enough cash on the sidelines to power the third wave”.
In any event, the weekend should have something very positive to chew on after it emerged on Friday that China has reiterated its pro-blockchain stance. Chinese premier President Xi Jinping made a surprise announcement, stating how important blokchain was as a technological breakthrough.
He urged for the independent innovation of core blockchain technologies, asking the state to accelerate the development of the emerging technology. He was quoted by local news outlet Xinhua News Agency to have said:
“We must take the blockchain as an important breakthrough for independent innovation of core technologies, clarify the main direction, increase investment, focus on a number of key core technologies, and accelerate the development of blockchain technology and industrial innovation.”
As the General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, Xi said at the 18th collective study of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee that blockchain would play a crucial role in transformation of industry and innovation.
With soundbites like “application chain” and “value chain” interspersing his speech, Xi at times almost sounded more like a tech magnate giving a speech. But he stressed on the need to improve basic research, enhance original abilities at innovation and strike to take the pole position in blockchain for industry advantage. He said:
“It is necessary to promote collaborative research, accelerate the breakthrough of core technologies, and provide safe and controllable technical support for the development of blockchain applications… It is necessary to strengthen the research on blockchain standardization and enhance the right to speak and rule in the world.”
As typical in any state speech, of course, Xi also underlined how leadership would be expected to ensure their relevant departments pay attention to the current state of blockchain tech development. He urged them to explore possibilities to establish a “safety guarantee system that adapts to the blockchain technology mechanism and guide and promote blockchain developers and platform operators to strengthen industry self-discipline and implement safety responsibilities”.
A mouthful for the weekend, but a bullish piece of news from the world’s second-largest economy.
Meanwhile, the world’s financial banks have taken a hammering from management consultancy McKinsey & Company, whose global banking review critically finds that most banks throughout the world are not economically viable.
‘The Last Pit Stop?‘ asks if it is time for the world’s banks to embark on “bold late-cycle moves”. Only some ten years on from the last global financial crisis, it says that the industry is now entering a cyclical late phase of the economy. It points out “clear” signs:
“…growth in volumes and top-line revenues is slowing, with loan growth of just 4 percent in 2018—the lowest in the past five years and a good 150 basis points (bps) below nominal GDP growth (Exhibit 1). Yield curves are also flattening. And, although valuations fluctuate, investor confidence in banks is weakening once again.”
In 58 pages divided into four categories, it notes that every individual banks are defined and bound by how strong its franchise was, but also by the limitations of the markets and business models it operated in.
Beginning with the “market leaders” category, it shows how almost 100% of economic value in the entire banking industry is captured in only a fifth of the world’s banks. The next 25% of banks are dubbed the “resilients”, who continue to survive in challenging markets like Europe.
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