The last two days were quite exciting for market participants and nothing has meant a sharp price reversal at the end of the week. Bitcoin sellers never managed to test the critical point USD 7200, which we wrote about in the previous analysis, lacking USD 150. As you can see on the chart, yesterday’s daily candle was able to completely cover the 3-day fall. Due to this fall sellers were able to get out of the consolidation zone of USD 7700-8500, but failed to fix below.
At the moment, buyers have completely taken the initiative from sellers, breaking the price mark USD 8500 without any problems and testing the price mark USD 10,500. The main task of buyers now is to confidently fix above USD 9100-9300 at least on a daily timeframe. Then we can safely move to the previous high, namely the price mark USD 13,600.
If we look at the situation in more detail, we see that after a short period of consolidation in a rather narrow range (about 2%). Where there was no noticeable redistribution of volumes and the transition of power from sellers to buyers, buyers on increased volumes began to change the local trend:
The main volume was recorded just at the breakthrough of the price range of USD 9100-9300. After breaking through this price zone, sellers’ stop orders worked, which helped the price fairly quickly to reach USD 10,500. In fact, buyers are trying to fix above the price zone USD 9100-9300 on a 4-hour timeframe. If buyers are able to keep the price in this zone, then we will expect a repeated attempt to break through USD 10,500. However, after such growth, we think of a few days of lulls and the fall of the price into consolidation.
Marginal positions of Bitcoin buyers during a sharp growth began to close, which can be considered as a profit fixing:
Sellers in a panic of losses also sharply reduced the number of their marginal positions, which gave additional fuel for growth:
The sharp current growth has corrected the fall wave from June 2017 by 50%. The critical point for sellers, after which it will be difficult for them to continue the fall and update lows is USD 11,360:
If Bitcoin buyers manage to fix above USD 10,500, then the fall wave from June 2019 will be finally completed. This is the ultimate signal of a global trend change. The first signal will be the fixation above the mark of USD 9300. Let’s see if the emotional price swings continue and tomorrow we will sum up the weekly price movement.
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