Congratulations to everyone who managed to live through August and enter a new month which promises to be intensive. During the last month, the price was trading in the range of 30%. The beginning of the month was promising when in 10 days buyers from USD 10,000 easily were able to test USD 12,300. However, for the next part of the month, Bitcoin sellers took control and eventually were able to bring the price lower than it was at the beginning of the month.
In terms of trading volumes, August was not generous enough. For example, in July volumes were almost twice as high. What do we have as a result? In almost a month, the price moved from the purple zone USD 9100-9300 to USD 12,300 (the top trend line of the falling channel, in which the price has been trading since June 2019) and turned back. As all these happened on small volumes, so the first place is the scenario of continuation of consolidation in the range of USD 9300-10,500:
In this case, the first part of September should be for the test of the purple price zone and gaining positions. The second one – the growth with the final target of USD 10,500. This scenario will emphasize its relevance during the attempt to break through USD 9100-9300 on small volumes. It will be further proof of the weakness of Bitcoin sellers and the continuation of consolidation.
For this scenario, Bitcoin sellers need to take control of USD 9100-9300. In this case, this scenario will be the main one for us.
In terms of mood, market participants received a wide range of emotions throughout the month, starting from extreme greed ending with extreme fear:
As we can see, the month started confidently, but later the mood changed dramatically every day, which added volatility to the price.
Pay attention that the price, after updating the local high, could go down before the end of the month lower than when it opened on 1st August. On the chart of marginal positions, we see the durability and integrity of buyers who, despite the losses, continue to keep their positions.
According to the wave analysis, sellers corrected their growth by 38.2% from December 2018:
If sellers fix below this level, the next global price stop is USD 8500, which is in line with the target of our alternative scenario. Let’s see what scenario this month works out and we will meet you tomorrow with a daily Bitcoin analysis.
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Charts Courtesy: TradingView
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Not much has happened to Bitcoin price, despite this being Sunday, so the weekend optimists will be slightly disappointed, with Asian trading out of the way and Europe already entering the afternoon.
After yesterday’s resistance to further lows, today could not continue in a higher low trend with price briefly dipping to USD 9,406 (CoinDesk). On the other hand, a high of USD 9,699 gives hope that we could see yet another attempt to cross the USD 10,000 mark.
Not much in the way of sentiment, but a lot of traders in these times of sideways trading wonder if we are in for a period of deja vu. This particular trader believes that sentiment and price behavior will always follow a pattern:
Not the biggest fan of fractals but I'm always interested in price behaviour and sentiment. It's all feeling a bit familiar on Bitcoin at the moment
Jan 19 – People waiting for $1,000
Sep 19 – People waiting for $7,000What if? pic.twitter.com/NdU054UAAE
— Mr. TA (@Trader_M4tt) September 1, 2019
According to him, people waiting for a drop were disappointed back in January, when USD 1,000 was closer to USD 3,000 at the time. The bull began then, so could it begin soon now?
Others still are repeating that the death cross has appeared (it has been since last week) and the last time this happened, Bitcoin unexpectedly took a turn upwards.
So it seems, for now, people are banking that Bitcoin will do the least expected move according to technicals, but that, ladies and gentlemen, is typically what sentiment does.
– Price is now hovering in range.
– As we can see seller becomes weakened and buyers are still buy at resistance.
– 3hr candle close above $9627 will be bullish scenario.#BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin #FTM #ETH #TOMO pic.twitter.com/CNomw8qROK
— Trader 𝙒𝙞-𝙁𝙞 📡 (@traderwifi) September 1, 2019
In any case, we wait and see if we can close Sunday with 1 3-hour candle above resistance, which, at least some traders believe, the sell sentiment will be weakened.
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A few days have passed calmly since our past Ethereum analysis. As we can see on the daily timeframe, the price started to slow down, volumes are falling and all this is happening near the lower trend line of the black wedge. Starting from 17 July, each subsequent local minimum becomes less dangerous and sharp. The situation looks like a gradual decline in the falling trend.
However, we think that without a price range test of USD 155-160, a strong trend of buyers’ movement will not begin. The fact is that, practically the whole fall period, starting from 10 July, is on small volumes. Since 6 August, volumes have fallen completely. We believe that the USD 155-160 price range should be of interest to active buyers who can wipe out the melancholy fall, get out of the black wedge, and start a new wave of growth. Although, are there such buyers in this price range? A little patience, and we will find out.
If these false breakdowns were on increased volumes, the chances of a price rebound to USD 185 would be greater. And so this phenomenon can be interpreted differently. Ethereum buyers banally do not have the power to keep the price with the help of limit orders. That is, we do not see the big buyers who are ready to keep the price. Everything happens, thanks to small buyers.
Also after false breakdowns, often starts a counter-attack that we do not notice in our situation. Nevertheless, in consolidation, it is important not to guess the side but to support the stronger one. So a little patience and we’ll see if a rebound to USD 185 is possible or sellers will break the black wedge down.
With regard to marginal positions, buyers behave as restrained as possible, without showing their mood and leaving the index of marginal positions in consolidation:
According to wave analysis, we have two scenarios which talk about the continuation of the fall, but with different targets:
The first scenario is the continuation of the movement in the black triangle with a final target of USD 155 (50% Fibonacci level). In this case, we should expect another USD 185 test and then the last wave of fall.
The second scenario, with a target of USD 135, will work if Ethereum sellers break the black trendline of the wedge during the current attack. In this case, the logical end of the wave (Y) will be at the 61.8%level of Fibonacci.
Meet you on Monday and summarize for the month!
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